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Maria del Mar Agosto's house in San Juan, Puerto Rico, was destroyed on Sept. 20, 2017, by Hurricane Maria, setting off a series of events that would lead her to an unlikely new home just two months later: Buffalo, New York. The city, with its 93.4 feet of average annual snowfall, does not come off as a likely landing spot for people like Agosto, who have been displaced by extreme weather. But her journey could become far more common as strong storms fueled by climate change displace more people."I prefer snow a thousand times than a hurricane," Agosto, 33, said in Spanish. "I truly feel safer here."Buffalo, it turns out, might end up being the ideal destination for Agosto. The city isn't immune to climate change, but scientists say it's among a handful of cities that could become more desirable as the Earth warms. While Agosto did not mean to be ahead of the curve, some forward-thinking people have looked to Buffalo as a snowy oasis. Susan Drayton moved to Buffalo from Florida in 2003, in part, because of what she calls her "apocalyptic vision" of the momentum of environmental problems after having lived through some extreme weather."I remember feeling all that anxiety about the weather," she said. "One thing about living in Buffalo, I don't have that same anxiety in the back of my mind."Buffalo is one of a narrow band of northern U. S. cities that may be best positioned to withstand climate change, said Jesse M. Keenan, a professor at Harvard University's Graduate School of Design and an expert on climate change adaptation. Keenan listed off what makes these cities so appealing: access to bodies of fresh lake water, distance from the coast, elevation from sea level, and colder weather that will become a little more temperate."If you're a Duluth, Minn., or a Buffalo or a Burlington, Vermont, there's an opportunity," he said. "You have a potentially superior place to live in the face of climate change."Stephen Vermette, a professor of geography at SUNY Buffalo State, used climate data from 1965 to 2018 to analyze the impact of changing temperatures in Western New York. The models showed rising regional air temperatures and longer growing seasons. More surprising, however, was the discovery that severe weather indices, precipitation and extreme heat were largely unchanged over those years. Many places — and people — will not be as fortunate. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, an international organization based in Geneva, Switzerland, that tracks refugees, estimated that 16.1 million people were displaced in weather-related disasters across the planet in 2018. On Tuesday, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees warned that the world needs to prepare for millions of people who will be displaced by climate-related disasters and environmental changes. Americans are also at risk. A study published in Nature three years ago projected that as many as 13.1 million Americans would be displaced from coastal areas by the end of this
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Buffalo as an oasis Scientists say a warmer earth could make colder:
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